Calgary Flames at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions
2025-03-31 • Ball Arena
Colorado Avalanche 2 - 3 Calgary Flames
🚨 Upset Loss (64% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
COL: 64.4%
CGY: 35.6%
Expected Goals
COL: 2.83
CGY: 2.37
Total Goals
Median: 5.1
Over 5.5: 46%
Over 6.5: 32%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
COL
Scott Wedgewood - 21-4-5 | 0.913 SV% | 2.29 GAA
CGY
Dustin Wolf - 16-21-3 | 0.895 SV% | 3.00 GAA
| Stat | COL | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.919 | 0.901 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.891 | 0.877 |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | — |
| GAA | 2.13 | 2.82 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • COL at home vs CGY: 2-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-31 | COL 2 - 3 CGY | CGY | COL |
| 2025-03-14 | CGY 2 - 4 COL | COL | CGY |
| 2025-02-06 | CGY 2 - 4 COL | COL | CGY |
| 2024-03-12 | CGY 2 - 6 COL | COL | CGY |
| 2023-12-11 | COL 6 - 5 CGY | COL | COL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 16:31 | COL | Goal |
| 2 | 07:59 | COL | Goal |
| 3 | 10:57 | COL | Goal |
| 3 | 11:29 | COL | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | COL | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 64.4%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 5.2
Score Breakdown
Colorado Avalanche 2 - 3 Calgary Flames
Expected: 2.8 - 2.4