Calgary Flames at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2025-03-31 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 2 - 3 Calgary Flames

🚨 Upset Loss (74% underdog)

Win Probability

COL: 74.0%

CGY: 26.0%

Expected Goals

COL: 4.07

CGY: 2.23

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 47%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 89% • COL at home vs CGY: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-14	CGY 1 - 3 COL	COL	COL
2026-04-09	COL 3 - 1 CGY	COL	COL
2026-03-30	COL 9 - 2 CGY	COL	COL
2025-03-31	COL 2 - 3 CGY	CGY	COL
2025-03-14	CGY 2 - 4 COL	COL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	11	0	0.46
1	CGY	9	0	0.50
2	COL	15	0	1.44
2	CGY	10	0	0.49
3	COL	9	2	0.82
3	CGY	15	1	1.14
4	COL	5	0	0.40
4	CGY	6	0	0.45
5	COL	3	0	0.22
5	CGY	3	1	0.95

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 74.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 2 - 3 Calgary Flames

Expected: 4.1 - 2.2