Buffalo Sabres at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2025-04-01 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 2 - 5 Buffalo Sabres

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

Win Probability

OTT: 52.5%

BUF: 47.5%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.22

BUF: 3.14

Total Goals

Median: 5.7

Over 5.5: 51%

Over 6.5: 40%

OTT

Linus Ullmark - 14-8-5 | 0.881 SV% | 2.95 GAA

BUF

James Reimer - 10-10-2 | 0.896 SV% | 3.04 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Linus Ullmark	22	17	5	77.3%	4.19	5	-0.81
BUF	James Reimer	35	33	2	94.3%	3.22	0	1.22

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 45% • OTT at home vs BUF: 2-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	OTT 4 - 1 BUF	OTT	OTT
2025-12-23	OTT 2 - 3 BUF	BUF	OTT
2025-10-15	BUF 8 - 4 OTT	BUF	OTT
2025-04-01	OTT 2 - 5 BUF	BUF	OTT
2025-03-25	BUF 3 - 2 OTT	BUF	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	19	0	0.98
1	BUF	7	1	0.54
2	OTT	16	0	1.03
2	BUF	12	1	1.01
3	OTT	26	0	1.22
3	BUF	14	3	2.63

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 2 - 5 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.2 - 3.1