Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Islanders NHL Predictions
2025-04-01 • UBS Arena
New York Islanders 1 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning
🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
NYI: 54.6%
TBL: 45.4%
Expected Goals
NYI: 2.79
TBL: 3.02
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 56%
Over 6.5: 40%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
NYI
Ilya Sorokin - 20-13-2 | 0.916 SV% | 2.44 GAA
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 28-7-3 | 0.920 SV% | 2.11 GAA
| Stat | NYI | TBL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.910 | 0.913 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.930 | 0.921 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.969 | 0.917 |
| GAA | 2.55 | 2.33 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • NYI at home vs TBL: 3-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-13 | NYI 3 - 2 TBL | NYI | NYI |
| 2025-12-06 | TBL 0 - 2 NYI | NYI | TBL |
| 2025-12-02 | NYI 2 - 1 TBL | NYI | NYI |
| 2025-04-01 | NYI 1 - 4 TBL | TBL | NYI |
| 2025-03-29 | TBL 5 - 3 NYI | TBL | TBL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 08:46 | TBL | Goal |
| 1 | 10:57 | NYI | Goal |
| 2 | 08:09 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 10:41 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 16:29 | TBL | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 54.6%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 5.8
Score Breakdown
New York Islanders 1 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning
Expected: 2.8 - 3.0