Calgary Flames at Utah Hockey Club NHL Predictions

2025-04-01 • Delta Center

Utah Hockey Club 3 - 1 Calgary Flames

Win Probability

UTA: 72.3%

CGY: 27.7%

Expected Goals

UTA: 3.42

CGY: 2.81

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 49%

UTA

Karel Vejmelka - 17-10-2 | 0.895 SV% | 2.68 GAA

CGY

Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
UTA	Karel Vejmelka	34	33	1	97.1%	2.13	2	1.13
CGY	Dustin Wolf	28	25	3	89.3%	4.86	7	1.86

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 100% • UTA at home vs CGY: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-12	CGY 4 - 1 UTA	CGY	CGY
2025-12-06	CGY 2 - 0 UTA	CGY	CGY
2025-10-15	UTA 3 - 1 CGY	UTA	UTA
2025-04-01	UTA 3 - 1 CGY	UTA	UTA
2025-01-02	CGY 3 - 5 UTA	UTA	UTA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	UTA	17	2	1.55
1	CGY	14	1	0.47
2	UTA	17	2	1.67
2	CGY	12	0	0.54
3	UTA	9	3	1.63
3	CGY	16	1	1.12

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 72.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Utah Hockey Club 3 - 1 Calgary Flames

Expected: 3.4 - 2.8