Washington Capitals at Carolina Hurricanes NHL Predictions

2025-04-02 • Lenovo Center

Carolina Hurricanes 5 - 1 Washington Capitals

Win Probability

CAR: 81.8%

WSH: 18.2%

Expected Goals

CAR: 4.06

WSH: 2.39

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 43%

CAR

Frederik Andersen - 5-9-2 | 0.865 SV% | 3.38 GAA

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CAR	Frederik Andersen	21	20	1	95.2%	2.79	3	1.79
WSH	Logan Thompson	31	26	5	83.9%	3.33	0	-1.67

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • CAR at home vs WSH: 5-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-31	WSH 4 - 3 CAR	WSH	CAR
2025-12-11	WSH 2 - 3 CAR	CAR	CAR
2025-11-11	CAR 1 - 4 WSH	WSH	CAR
2025-05-15	WSH 1 - 3 CAR	CAR	CAR
2025-05-12	CAR 5 - 2 WSH	CAR	CAR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CAR	16	0	1.12
1	WSH	8	1	0.95
2	CAR	14	0	0.94
2	WSH	18	1	1.43
3	CAR	20	0	1.27
3	WSH	7	1	0.41

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 81.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Carolina Hurricanes 5 - 1 Washington Capitals

Expected: 4.1 - 2.4