Florida Panthers at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2025-04-02 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 2 Florida Panthers

Win Probability

TOR: 60.7%

FLA: 39.3%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.05

FLA: 3.13

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 41%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 63% • TOR at home vs FLA: 6-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	TOR 2 - 6 FLA	FLA	TOR
2026-02-26	FLA 5 - 1 TOR	FLA	FLA
2026-01-06	TOR 4 - 1 FLA	TOR	FLA
2025-12-02	FLA 1 - 4 TOR	TOR	FLA
2025-05-18	TOR 1 - 6 FLA	FLA	FLA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	14	0	0.84
1	FLA	12	0	0.45
2	TOR	9	1	1.03
2	FLA	23	1	1.48
3	TOR	11	0	0.65
3	FLA	19	1	1.41

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 60.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 2 Florida Panthers

Expected: 3.0 - 3.1