Boston Bruins at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2025-04-03 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 4 - 1 Boston Bruins

Win Probability

MTL: 51.6%

BOS: 48.4%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.39

BOS: 2.93

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 48%

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	19	18	1	94.7%	2.69	4	1.69
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	32	28	4	87.5%	4.03	3	0.03

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 82% • MTL at home vs BOS: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-17	MTL 3 - 2 BOS	MTL	MTL
2026-01-24	BOS 4 - 3 MTL	BOS	BOS
2025-12-23	BOS 2 - 6 MTL	MTL	BOS
2025-11-15	MTL 2 - 3 BOS	BOS	MTL
2025-04-03	MTL 4 - 1 BOS	MTL	MTL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	11	2	0.94
1	BOS	13	0	0.83
2	MTL	24	0	1.42
2	BOS	3	1	0.23
3	MTL	15	1	1.66
3	BOS	17	3	1.64

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 4 - 1 Boston Bruins

Expected: 3.4 - 2.9