Tampa Bay Lightning at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions
2025-04-03 • Canadian Tire Centre
Ottawa Senators 2 - 1 Tampa Bay Lightning
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
OTT: 54.7%
TBL: 45.3%
Expected Goals
OTT: 2.89
TBL: 3.43
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 66%
Over 6.5: 45%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
OTT
Linus Ullmark - 16-8-5 | 0.884 SV% | 2.86 GAA
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 28-7-3 | 0.920 SV% | 2.11 GAA
| Stat | OTT | TBL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.881 | 0.913 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.882 | 0.921 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.840 | 0.879 |
| GAA | 2.95 | 2.33 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • OTT at home vs TBL: 3-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-09 | TBL 4 - 5 OTT | OTT | TBL |
| 2025-04-03 | OTT 2 - 1 TBL | OTT | OTT |
| 2025-02-06 | TBL 5 - 1 OTT | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-02-04 | TBL 4 - 3 OTT | TBL | TBL |
| 2024-10-19 | OTT 5 - 4 TBL | OTT | OTT |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13:45 | OTT | Goal |
| 2 | 05:17 | OTT | Goal |
| 2 | 07:00 | OTT | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 54.7%
Total Goals
Actual: 3.0
Expected: 6.3
Score Breakdown
Ottawa Senators 2 - 1 Tampa Bay Lightning
Expected: 2.9 - 3.4