Colorado Avalanche at Columbus Blue Jackets NHL Predictions

2025-04-03 • Nationwide Arena

Columbus Blue Jackets 3 - 7 Colorado Avalanche

🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)

Win Probability

CBJ: 51.5%

COL: 48.5%

Expected Goals

CBJ: 3.13

COL: 3.25

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 48%

CBJ

Elvis Merzlikins - 6-6-1 | 0.877 SV% | 4.04 GAA

COL

Mackenzie Blackwood - 13-1-1 | 0.924 SV% | 2.07 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CBJ	Elvis Merzlikins	32	25	7	78.1%	3.04	1	-3.96
COL	Mackenzie Blackwood	30	27	3	90.0%	3.11	3	0.11

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • CBJ at home vs COL: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-10	COL 4 - 0 CBJ	COL	COL
2025-10-16	CBJ 1 - 4 COL	COL	COL
2025-04-03	CBJ 3 - 7 COL	COL	CBJ
2024-10-12	COL 4 - 6 CBJ	CBJ	COL
2024-04-01	CBJ 4 - 1 COL	CBJ	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CBJ	15	0	0.81
1	COL	17	0	1.32
2	CBJ	17	3	1.77
2	COL	19	0	0.85
3	CBJ	18	0	0.54
3	COL	16	1	0.87

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Columbus Blue Jackets 3 - 7 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 3.1 - 3.3