Pittsburgh Penguins at St. Louis Blues NHL Predictions

2025-04-03 • Enterprise Center

St. Louis Blues 5 - 4 Pittsburgh Penguins

Win Probability

STL: 55.1%

PIT: 44.9%

Expected Goals

STL: 4.18

PIT: 3.54

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 47%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • STL at home vs PIT: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-14	STL 7 - 5 PIT	STL	PIT
2025-10-27	PIT 6 - 3 STL	PIT	STL
2025-04-03	STL 5 - 4 PIT	STL	STL
2025-03-13	PIT 5 - 3 STL	PIT	STL
2023-12-30	PIT 4 - 2 STL	PIT	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	STL	7	0	0.35
1	PIT	11	0	0.59
2	STL	16	2	1.49
2	PIT	10	2	1.42
3	STL	5	1	0.59
3	PIT	18	1	1.12
4	STL	2	0	0.25
4	PIT	1	0	0.01

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 55.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 7.7

Score Breakdown

St. Louis Blues 5 - 4 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 4.2 - 3.5