Nashville Predators at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2025-04-03 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 5 - 1 Nashville Predators

Win Probability

DAL: 65.6%

NSH: 34.4%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.94

NSH: 2.25

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 52%

Over 6.5: 42%

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

NSH

Justus Annunen - 3-5-1 | 0.875 SV% | 3.29 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	29	28	1	96.6%	2.86	2	1.86
NSH	Justus Annunen	27	22	5	81.5%	3.28	4	-1.72

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • DAL at home vs NSH: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-28	DAL 3 - 2 NSH	DAL	DAL
2025-11-08	NSH 4 - 5 DAL	DAL	NSH
2025-10-26	NSH 2 - 3 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-04-16	NSH 5 - 1 DAL	NSH	NSH
2025-04-03	DAL 5 - 1 NSH	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	8	1	0.79
1	NSH	24	1	1.73
2	DAL	15	1	0.94
2	NSH	10	1	0.48
3	DAL	16	2	1.56
3	NSH	9	0	0.66

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 65.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 5 - 1 Nashville Predators

Expected: 3.9 - 2.3