Anaheim Ducks at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2025-04-03 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 4 - 1 Anaheim Ducks

Win Probability

CGY: 55.3%

ANA: 44.7%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.28

ANA: 2.97

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 44%

CGY

Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA

ANA

John Gibson - 13-27-2 | 0.888 SV% | 3.54 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	Dustin Wolf	27	26	1	96.3%	2.02	1	1.02
ANA	John Gibson	34	30	4	88.2%	3.45	1	-0.55

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • CGY at home vs ANA: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-04	ANA 3 - 5 CGY	CGY	ANA
2026-03-26	CGY 2 - 3 ANA	ANA	CGY
2026-03-01	ANA 3 - 2 CGY	ANA	ANA
2026-01-25	CGY 3 - 4 ANA	ANA	ANA
2025-04-09	ANA 4 - 3 CGY	ANA	CGY

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	26	0	1.55
1	ANA	16	0	0.72
2	CGY	17	0	1.08
2	ANA	13	1	0.72
3	CGY	16	1	0.81
3	ANA	9	0	0.58

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 55.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 4 - 1 Anaheim Ducks

Expected: 3.3 - 3.0