Winnipeg Jets at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2025-04-03 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 0 - 4 Winnipeg Jets

🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)

Win Probability

VGK: 57.3%

WPG: 42.7%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.12

WPG: 2.86

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 45%

VGK

Adin Hill - 1-0-2 | 0.888 SV% | 2.73 GAA

WPG

Eric Comrie - 6-9-1 | 0.880 SV% | 3.49 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	Adin Hill	22	18	4	81.8%	1.85	2	-2.15
WPG	Eric Comrie	26	26	0	100.0%	2.51	2	2.51

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • VGK at home vs WPG: 3-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-13	VGK 6 - 2 WPG	VGK	VGK
2026-03-24	WPG 4 - 1 VGK	WPG	VGK
2026-01-06	WPG 3 - 4 VGK	VGK	WPG
2025-04-03	VGK 0 - 4 WPG	WPG	VGK
2024-12-12	WPG 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	10	0	0.33
1	WPG	16	1	1.03
2	VGK	14	0	0.68
2	WPG	13	0	0.34
3	VGK	23	2	1.50
3	WPG	5	1	0.48

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 0 - 4 Winnipeg Jets

Expected: 3.1 - 2.9