Edmonton Oilers at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions

2025-04-03 • SAP Center at San Jose

San Jose Sharks 2 - 3 Edmonton Oilers

Win Probability

SJS: 42.8%

EDM: 57.2%

Expected Goals

SJS: 2.92

EDM: 3.37

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 51%

SJS

Georgi Romanov - 0-6-0 | 0.877 SV% | 3.89 GAA

EDM

Calvin Pickard - 4-5-2 | 0.874 SV% | 3.69 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SJS	Georgi Romanov	38	35	3	92.1%	2.95	1	-0.05
EDM	Calvin Pickard	29	27	2	93.1%	1.89	1	-0.11

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 82% • SJS at home vs EDM: 2-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-08	SJS 2 - 5 EDM	EDM	EDM
2026-03-17	EDM 5 - 3 SJS	EDM	EDM
2026-02-28	SJS 5 - 4 EDM	SJS	EDM
2026-01-29	EDM 4 - 3 SJS	EDM	EDM
2025-04-16	SJS 0 - 3 EDM	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SJS	15	0	0.86
1	EDM	11	0	0.64
2	SJS	13	1	0.70
2	EDM	23	0	1.35
3	SJS	8	0	0.32
3	EDM	15	1	0.96

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

San Jose Sharks 2 - 3 Edmonton Oilers

Expected: 2.9 - 3.4