Pittsburgh Penguins at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions
2025-04-05 • American Airlines Center
Dallas Stars 3 - 5 Pittsburgh Penguins
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
DAL: 47.3%
PIT: 52.7%
Expected Goals
DAL: 4.06
PIT: 4.09
Total Goals
Median: 10.1
Over 5.5: 90%
Over 6.5: 84%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
DAL
Jake Oettinger - 35-12-6 | 0.899 SV% | 2.59 GAA
PIT
Stuart Skinner - 23-17-9 | 0.888 SV% | 2.92 GAA
| Stat | DAL | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.907 | 0.888 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.916 | 0.886 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.878 | 0.814 |
| GAA | 2.57 | 2.91 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • DAL at home vs PIT: 2-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-28 | PIT 3 - 6 DAL | DAL | PIT |
| 2025-12-07 | DAL 3 - 2 PIT | DAL | PIT |
| 2025-04-05 | DAL 3 - 5 PIT | PIT | PIT |
| 2024-11-11 | PIT 1 - 7 DAL | DAL | PIT |
| 2024-03-22 | DAL 4 - 2 PIT | DAL | DAL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 04:16 | PIT | Goal |
| 1 | 10:43 | DAL | Goal |
| 2 | 12:36 | DAL | Goal |
| 3 | 00:20 | DAL | Goal |
| 3 | 03:11 | DAL | Goal |
| 3 | 08:49 | DAL | Goal |
| 3 | 18:17 | PIT | Goal |
| 3 | 18:45 | PIT | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 52.7%
Total Goals
Actual: 8.0
Expected: 8.2
Score Breakdown
Dallas Stars 3 - 5 Pittsburgh Penguins
Expected: 4.1 - 4.1
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