Philadelphia Flyers at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2025-04-05 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 3 - 2 Philadelphia Flyers

🚨 Upset Win (65% underdog)

Win Probability

MTL: 34.9%

PHI: 65.1%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.14

PHI: 3.44

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 47%

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

PHI

Samuel Ersson - 6-5-4 | 0.868 SV% | 3.09 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	24	22	2	91.7%	2.14	2	0.14
PHI	Samuel Ersson	26	23	3	88.5%	3.83	3	0.83

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • MTL at home vs PHI: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-14	PHI 4 - 2 MTL	PHI	PHI
2025-12-16	MTL 1 - 4 PHI	PHI	MTL
2025-11-04	MTL 4 - 5 PHI	PHI	PHI
2025-04-05	MTL 3 - 2 PHI	MTL	PHI
2025-03-27	PHI 6 - 4 MTL	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	14	1	1.06
1	PHI	10	1	0.53
2	MTL	17	0	0.95
2	PHI	9	0	0.19
3	MTL	17	2	1.81
3	PHI	18	1	1.42

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 65.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 3 - 2 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.1 - 3.4