Philadelphia Flyers at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2025-04-05 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 3 - 2 Philadelphia Flyers

🚨 Upset Win (60% underdog)

Win Probability

MTL: 40.2%

PHI: 59.8%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.13

PHI: 3.52

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 50%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • MTL at home vs PHI: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-14	PHI 4 - 2 MTL	PHI	PHI
2025-12-16	MTL 1 - 4 PHI	PHI	MTL
2025-11-04	MTL 4 - 5 PHI	PHI	MTL
2025-04-05	MTL 3 - 2 PHI	MTL	PHI
2025-03-27	PHI 6 - 4 MTL	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	14	1	1.06
1	PHI	10	1	0.53
2	MTL	17	0	0.95
2	PHI	9	0	0.19
3	MTL	17	2	1.81
3	PHI	18	1	1.42

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 3 - 2 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.1 - 3.5