Winnipeg Jets at Utah Hockey Club NHL Predictions

2025-04-05 • Delta Center

Utah Hockey Club 4 - 1 Winnipeg Jets

🚨 Upset Win (51% underdog)

Win Probability

UTA: 49.0%

WPG: 51.0%

Expected Goals

UTA: 2.98

WPG: 3.34

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 47%

UTA

Karel Vejmelka - 17-10-2 | 0.895 SV% | 2.68 GAA

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
UTA	Karel Vejmelka	33	32	1	97.0%	4.01	2	3.01
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	28	24	4	85.7%	3.68	1	-0.32

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 71% • UTA at home vs WPG: 4-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-14	UTA 5 - 3 WPG	UTA	UTA
2025-12-21	UTA 4 - 3 WPG	UTA	UTA
2025-10-26	WPG 2 - 3 UTA	UTA	WPG
2025-04-05	UTA 4 - 1 WPG	UTA	WPG
2025-01-24	WPG 5 - 2 UTA	WPG	WPG

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	UTA	17	0	1.55
1	WPG	13	0	0.76
2	UTA	17	0	1.11
2	WPG	17	2	1.70
3	UTA	7	1	1.02
3	WPG	23	0	1.55

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Utah Hockey Club 4 - 1 Winnipeg Jets

Expected: 3.0 - 3.3