Washington Capitals at New York Islanders NHL Predictions
2025-04-06 • UBS Arena
New York Islanders 4 - 1 Washington Capitals
🚨 Upset Win (52% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
NYI: 48.3%
WSH: 51.7%
Expected Goals
NYI: 3.29
WSH: 2.90
Total Goals
Median: 6.2
Over 5.5: 55%
Over 6.5: 42%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
NYI
Ilya Sorokin - 29-24-2 | 0.906 SV% | 2.68 GAA
WSH
Logan Thompson - 31-21-6 | 0.912 SV% | 2.44 GAA
| Stat | NYI | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.910 | 0.913 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.851 | 0.912 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.899 | 0.944 |
| GAA | 2.55 | 2.39 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 36% • NYI at home vs WSH: 2-4
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-02 | WSH 4 - 1 NYI | WSH | WSH |
| 2025-11-30 | NYI 1 - 4 WSH | WSH | NYI |
| 2025-10-31 | WSH 1 - 3 NYI | NYI | WSH |
| 2025-10-11 | NYI 2 - 4 WSH | WSH | WSH |
| 2025-04-15 | NYI 1 - 3 WSH | WSH | NYI |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 07:06 | NYI | Goal |
| 1 | 09:00 | NYI | Goal |
| 2 | 07:26 | NYI | Goal |
| 2 | 10:26 | NYI | Goal |
| 3 | 04:20 | NYI | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 51.7%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 6.2
Score Breakdown
New York Islanders 4 - 1 Washington Capitals
Expected: 3.3 - 2.9
Like this analysis? Get it daily.
Short, data-driven emails. Unsubscribe any time.