Washington Capitals at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2025-04-06 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 4 - 1 Washington Capitals

Win Probability

NYI: 53.4%

WSH: 46.6%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.41

WSH: 2.88

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 45%

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

WSH

Charlie Lindgren - 6-4-2 | 0.887 SV% | 3.07 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	29	28	1	96.6%	2.35	2	1.35
WSH	Charlie Lindgren	22	18	4	81.8%	3.57	1	-0.43

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • NYI at home vs WSH: 2-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-02	WSH 4 - 1 NYI	WSH	WSH
2025-11-30	NYI 1 - 4 WSH	WSH	WSH
2025-10-31	WSH 1 - 3 NYI	NYI	WSH
2025-10-11	NYI 2 - 4 WSH	WSH	NYI
2025-04-15	NYI 1 - 3 WSH	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	13	0	0.84
1	WSH	8	1	0.58
2	NYI	14	0	1.45
2	WSH	13	0	0.70
3	NYI	15	1	1.28
3	WSH	18	1	1.08

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 4 - 1 Washington Capitals

Expected: 3.4 - 2.9