Dallas Stars at Minnesota Wild NHL Predictions

2025-04-06 • Xcel Energy Center

Minnesota Wild 3 - 2 Dallas Stars

Win Probability

MIN: 56.6%

DAL: 43.4%

Expected Goals

MIN: 3.01

DAL: 2.98

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 41%

MIN

Filip Gustavsson - 13-8-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.47 GAA

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MIN	Filip Gustavsson	25	23	2	92.0%	2.29	2	0.29
DAL	Jake Oettinger	41	38	3	92.7%	3.59	4	0.59

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • MIN at home vs DAL: 5-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-30	MIN 5 - 2 DAL	MIN	MIN
2026-04-28	DAL 2 - 4 MIN	MIN	DAL
2026-04-25	MIN 3 - 2 DAL	MIN	DAL
2026-04-22	MIN 3 - 4 DAL	DAL	MIN
2026-04-20	DAL 4 - 2 MIN	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MIN	17	0	0.71
1	DAL	9	2	0.98
2	MIN	15	1	0.69
2	DAL	17	0	0.99
3	MIN	19	3	2.08
3	DAL	7	0	0.32
4	MIN	1	0	0.11
4	DAL	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 56.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Minnesota Wild 3 - 2 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.0 - 3.0