Florida Panthers at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2025-04-06 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 2 - 1 Florida Panthers

Win Probability

DET: 60.7%

FLA: 39.3%

Expected Goals

DET: 3.37

FLA: 2.41

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 48%

DET

Cam Talbot - 11-6-3 | 0.888 SV% | 2.99 GAA

FLA

Vitek Vanecek - 5-14-4 | 0.884 SV% | 3.62 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DET	Cam Talbot	33	32	1	97.0%	2.34	1	1.34
FLA	Vitek Vanecek	24	22	2	91.7%	3.93	2	1.93

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 72% • DET at home vs FLA: 2-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-15	FLA 8 - 1 DET	FLA	FLA
2026-03-10	FLA 4 - 3 DET	FLA	FLA
2026-03-06	DET 1 - 3 FLA	FLA	DET
2025-10-15	DET 4 - 1 FLA	DET	FLA
2025-04-10	FLA 4 - 1 DET	FLA	FLA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	11	0	0.48
1	FLA	12	0	0.41
2	DET	15	0	1.24
2	FLA	10	1	0.95
3	DET	14	2	2.21
3	FLA	21	0	0.99

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 60.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown

Detroit Red Wings 2 - 1 Florida Panthers

Expected: 3.4 - 2.4