Pittsburgh Penguins at Chicago Blackhawks NHL Predictions

2025-04-06 • United Center

Chicago Blackhawks 3 - 1 Pittsburgh Penguins

🚨 Upset Win (53% underdog)

Win Probability

CHI: 47.2%

PIT: 52.8%

Expected Goals

CHI: 3.06

PIT: 2.83

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 43%

CHI

Spencer Knight - 11-11-6 | 0.909 SV% | 2.63 GAA

PIT

Alex Nedeljkovic - 14-15-5 | 0.894 SV% | 3.12 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CHI	Spencer Knight	29	28	1	96.6%	3.20	1	2.20
PIT	Alex Nedeljkovic	31	28	3	90.3%	3.69	1	0.69

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • CHI at home vs PIT: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-29	PIT 6 - 2 CHI	PIT	PIT
2025-12-28	CHI 3 - 7 PIT	PIT	PIT
2025-04-08	PIT 5 - 0 CHI	PIT	PIT
2025-04-06	CHI 3 - 1 PIT	CHI	PIT
2024-02-15	CHI 1 - 4 PIT	PIT	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CHI	12	0	0.76
1	PIT	15	0	1.33
2	CHI	13	0	0.82
2	PIT	18	0	1.01
3	CHI	19	1	2.12
3	PIT	13	1	0.86

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Chicago Blackhawks 3 - 1 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.1 - 2.8