Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2025-04-07 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 1 - 5 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)

Win Probability

NYR: 50.5%

TBL: 49.5%

Expected Goals

NYR: 3.03

TBL: 3.78

Total Goals

Median: 5.7

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 40%

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	23	18	5	78.3%	3.10	2	-1.90
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	39	38	1	97.4%	3.70	3	2.70

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • NYR at home vs TBL: 2-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-15	TBL 2 - 4 NYR	NYR	TBL
2025-11-29	NYR 1 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-11-12	TBL 3 - 7 NYR	NYR	TBL
2025-04-17	NYR 4 - 0 TBL	NYR	TBL
2025-04-07	NYR 1 - 5 TBL	TBL	NYR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	19	2	1.30
1	TBL	14	0	1.23
2	NYR	23	1	1.45
2	TBL	5	0	0.16
3	NYR	15	0	0.95
3	TBL	11	2	1.72

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown

New York Rangers 1 - 5 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.0 - 3.8