Edmonton Oilers at Anaheim Ducks NHL Predictions

2025-04-07 • Honda Center

Anaheim Ducks 3 - 2 Edmonton Oilers

🚨 Upset Win (58% underdog)

Win Probability

ANA: 42.2%

EDM: 57.8%

Expected Goals

ANA: 3.16

EDM: 3.26

Total Goals

Median: 7.0

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 54%

ANA

Lukas Dostal - 13-9-2 | 0.888 SV% | 3.15 GAA

EDM

Olivier Rodrigue - 0-1-0 | 0.862 SV% | 3.10 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
ANA	Lukas Dostal	47	45	2	95.7%	4.06	2	2.06
EDM	Olivier Rodrigue	21	18	3	85.7%	2.04	1	-0.96

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 76% • ANA at home vs EDM: 6-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-07	ANA 2 - 5 EDM	EDM	EDM
2026-04-30	ANA 5 - 2 EDM	ANA	ANA
2026-04-28	EDM 4 - 1 ANA	EDM	EDM
2026-04-26	ANA 4 - 3 EDM	ANA	ANA
2026-04-24	ANA 7 - 4 EDM	ANA	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	ANA	10	0	0.55
1	EDM	18	1	1.04
2	ANA	11	1	0.75
2	EDM	13	0	0.52
3	ANA	10	0	0.74
3	EDM	36	1	2.50

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Anaheim Ducks 3 - 2 Edmonton Oilers

Expected: 3.2 - 3.3