Calgary Flames at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions
2025-04-07 • SAP Center at San Jose
San Jose Sharks 2 - 3 Calgary Flames
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
SJS: 44.8%
CGY: 55.2%
Expected Goals
SJS: 2.91
CGY: 3.18
Total Goals
Median: 6.3
Over 5.5: 59%
Over 6.5: 45%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
SJS
Georgi Romanov - 0-6-0 | 0.877 SV% | 3.89 GAA
CGY
Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA
| Stat | SJS | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.877 | 0.901 |
| Last 5 SV% | — | — |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | — |
| GAA | 3.89 | 2.82 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.
Goalie Game Metrics
| Team | Goalie | SA | Saves | GA | SV% | xGA | HD Faced | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | Georgi Romanov | 32 | 29 | 3 | 90.6% | 3.71 | 4 | 0.71 |
| CGY | Dustin Wolf | 31 | 29 | 2 | 93.5% | 2.53 | 1 | 0.53 |
SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 74% • SJS at home vs CGY: 2-7
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-26 | SJS 1 - 4 CGY | CGY | SJS |
| 2026-01-31 | CGY 3 - 2 SJS | CGY | CGY |
| 2025-12-16 | SJS 6 - 3 CGY | SJS | CGY |
| 2025-11-13 | CGY 2 - 0 SJS | CGY | CGY |
| 2025-04-13 | CGY 5 - 2 SJS | CGY | CGY |
Shot Quality by Period
| Period | Team | Shots | High Danger | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SJS | 23 | 0 | 1.24 |
| 1 | CGY | 14 | 0 | 0.77 |
| 2 | SJS | 11 | 0 | 0.76 |
| 2 | CGY | 19 | 1 | 0.98 |
| 3 | SJS | 7 | 1 | 0.53 |
| 3 | CGY | 18 | 3 | 1.97 |
Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 55.2%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 6.1
Score Breakdown
San Jose Sharks 2 - 3 Calgary Flames
Expected: 2.9 - 3.2
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