Detroit Red Wings at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions
2025-04-08 • Centre Bell
Montreal Canadiens 4 - 1 Detroit Red Wings
🚨 Upset Win (61% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
MTL: 39.5%
DET: 60.5%
Expected Goals
MTL: 2.71
DET: 3.33
Total Goals
Median: 5.8
Over 5.5: 56%
Over 6.5: 41%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
MTL
Jakub Dobes - 29-10-4 | 0.901 SV% | 2.78 GAA
DET
John Gibson - 29-22-4 | 0.901 SV% | 2.72 GAA
| Stat | MTL | DET |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.889 | 0.893 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.891 | 0.862 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.948 | 0.918 |
| GAA | 3.01 | 2.97 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • MTL at home vs DET: 2-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-19 | DET 3 - 1 MTL | DET | DET |
| 2026-01-10 | MTL 0 - 4 DET | DET | MTL |
| 2025-10-09 | DET 1 - 5 MTL | MTL | DET |
| 2025-04-08 | MTL 4 - 1 DET | MTL | DET |
| 2025-01-23 | DET 4 - 2 MTL | DET | DET |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 09:54 | DET | Goal |
| 2 | 16:29 | MTL | Goal |
| 3 | 10:48 | MTL | Goal |
| 3 | 18:54 | MTL | Goal |
| 3 | 19:07 | MTL | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 60.5%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 6.0
Score Breakdown
Montreal Canadiens 4 - 1 Detroit Red Wings
Expected: 2.7 - 3.3
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