Chicago Blackhawks at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2025-04-08 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 5 - 0 Chicago Blackhawks

Win Probability

PIT: 72.3%

CHI: 27.7%

Expected Goals

PIT: 4.16

CHI: 2.25

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 47%

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

CHI

Spencer Knight - 11-11-6 | 0.909 SV% | 2.63 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Tristan Jarry	26	26	0	100.0%	2.44	1	2.44
CHI	Spencer Knight	27	22	5	81.5%	3.20	1	-1.80

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • PIT at home vs CHI: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-29	PIT 6 - 2 CHI	PIT	PIT
2025-12-28	CHI 3 - 7 PIT	PIT	PIT
2025-04-08	PIT 5 - 0 CHI	PIT	PIT
2025-04-06	CHI 3 - 1 PIT	CHI	PIT
2024-02-15	CHI 1 - 4 PIT	PIT	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	19	1	1.54
1	CHI	18	1	1.16
2	PIT	18	0	0.95
2	CHI	11	0	0.46
3	PIT	8	0	0.72
3	CHI	15	0	0.82

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 72.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 5 - 0 Chicago Blackhawks

Expected: 4.2 - 2.3