Philadelphia Flyers at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2025-04-09 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 5 - 8 Philadelphia Flyers

Win Probability

NYR: 47.2%

PHI: 52.8%

Expected Goals

NYR: 3.23

PHI: 4.09

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 44%

NYR

Jonathan Quick - 3-6-1 | 0.924 SV% | 2.11 GAA

PHI

Aleksei Kolosov - 5-9-1 | 0.867 SV% | 3.59 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	Jonathan Quick	30	22	8	73.3%	4.95	6	-3.05
PHI	Aleksei Kolosov	29	24	5	82.8%	2.64	3	-2.36

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 45% • NYR at home vs PHI: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-09	PHI 2 - 6 NYR	NYR	PHI
2026-02-26	NYR 2 - 3 PHI	PHI	NYR
2026-01-17	PHI 3 - 6 NYR	NYR	PHI
2025-12-20	NYR 5 - 4 PHI	NYR	NYR
2025-04-09	NYR 5 - 8 PHI	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	18	1	1.06
1	PHI	7	0	0.67
2	NYR	12	1	1.01
2	PHI	12	0	0.53
3	NYR	10	1	0.57
3	PHI	21	6	3.75

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 52.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 13.0

Expected: 7.3

Score Breakdown

New York Rangers 5 - 8 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.2 - 4.1