Calgary Flames at Anaheim Ducks NHL Predictions

2025-04-09 • Honda Center

Anaheim Ducks 4 - 3 Calgary Flames

🚨 Upset Win (53% underdog)

Win Probability

ANA: 47.2%

CGY: 52.8%

Expected Goals

ANA: 3.27

CGY: 2.95

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 46%

ANA

Ville Husso - 5-3-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.25 GAA

CGY

Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
ANA	Ville Husso	39	36	3	92.3%	3.38	2	0.38
CGY	Dustin Wolf	23	19	4	82.6%	2.16	0	-1.84

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • ANA at home vs CGY: 2-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-04	ANA 3 - 5 CGY	CGY	ANA
2026-03-26	CGY 2 - 3 ANA	ANA	CGY
2026-03-01	ANA 3 - 2 CGY	ANA	ANA
2026-01-25	CGY 3 - 4 ANA	ANA	ANA
2025-04-09	ANA 4 - 3 CGY	ANA	CGY

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	ANA	13	0	0.72
1	CGY	22	0	1.09
2	ANA	9	0	0.45
2	CGY	15	0	1.02
3	ANA	15	0	0.85
3	CGY	17	2	1.28
4	ANA	1	0	0.13
4	CGY	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Anaheim Ducks 4 - 3 Calgary Flames

Expected: 3.3 - 2.9