Carolina Hurricanes at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2025-04-10 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 5 - 4 Carolina Hurricanes

Win Probability

WSH: 52.4%

CAR: 47.6%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.63

CAR: 3.17

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 51%

WSH

Charlie Lindgren - 6-4-2 | 0.887 SV% | 3.07 GAA

CAR

Frederik Andersen - 5-9-2 | 0.865 SV% | 3.38 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	Charlie Lindgren	36	32	4	88.9%	4.06	1	0.06
CAR	Frederik Andersen	31	26	5	83.9%	4.78	6	-0.22

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 68% • WSH at home vs CAR: 6-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-13	CAR 4 - 2 WSH	CAR	CAR
2026-10-02	CAR 2 - 5 WSH	WSH	WSH
2026-01-31	WSH 4 - 3 CAR	WSH	CAR
2025-12-11	WSH 2 - 3 CAR	CAR	CAR
2025-11-11	CAR 1 - 4 WSH	WSH	CAR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	6	1	0.40
1	CAR	27	0	1.79
2	WSH	24	3	2.51
2	CAR	15	0	0.88
3	WSH	11	1	0.71
3	CAR	17	0	0.74
4	WSH	2	0	0.23
4	CAR	3	1	0.34
5	WSH	3	1	0.93
5	CAR	3	0	0.31

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 52.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 5 - 4 Carolina Hurricanes

Expected: 3.6 - 3.2