Vancouver Canucks at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2025-04-10 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 1 - 4 Vancouver Canucks

🚨 Upset Loss (77% underdog)

Win Probability

COL: 76.5%

VAN: 23.5%

Expected Goals

COL: 4.06

VAN: 3.00

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 43%

COL

Mackenzie Blackwood - 13-1-1 | 0.924 SV% | 2.07 GAA

VAN

Kevin Lankinen - 6-10-3 | 0.885 SV% | 3.41 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	Mackenzie Blackwood	30	26	4	86.7%	4.84	6	0.84
VAN	Kevin Lankinen	32	31	1	96.9%	3.12	2	2.12

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • COL at home vs VAN: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-01	COL 6 - 8 VAN	VAN	COL
2025-12-02	COL 3 - 1 VAN	COL	COL
2025-11-09	VAN 4 - 5 COL	COL	COL
2025-04-10	COL 1 - 4 VAN	VAN	COL
2025-02-04	VAN 3 - 0 COL	VAN	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	14	0	1.01
1	VAN	11	0	0.59
2	COL	14	1	0.84
2	VAN	20	1	0.99
3	COL	21	1	1.26
3	VAN	13	5	3.26

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 76.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 7.1

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 1 - 4 Vancouver Canucks

Expected: 4.1 - 3.0