Montreal Canadiens at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2025-04-11 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 5 - 2 Montreal Canadiens

Win Probability

OTT: 51.3%

MTL: 48.7%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.25

MTL: 3.07

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 47%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • OTT at home vs MTL: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-11	OTT 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	OTT
2026-01-17	OTT 5 - 6 MTL	MTL	OTT
2025-12-02	MTL 2 - 5 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-11-01	MTL 4 - 3 OTT	MTL	MTL
2025-04-11	OTT 5 - 2 MTL	OTT	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	23	2	1.65
1	MTL	7	0	0.50
2	OTT	19	0	1.36
2	MTL	16	0	1.24
3	OTT	10	1	1.20
3	MTL	9	0	0.39

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 5 - 2 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.2 - 3.1