Detroit Red Wings at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions
2025-04-11 • Amalie Arena
Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 4 Detroit Red Wings
🚨 Upset Loss (64% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TBL: 64.1%
DET: 35.9%
Expected Goals
TBL: 3.37
DET: 2.70
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 54%
Over 6.5: 42%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 28-7-3 | 0.920 SV% | 2.11 GAA
DET
John Gibson - 22-12-2 | 0.904 SV% | 2.62 GAA
| Stat | TBL | DET |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.893 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.921 | 0.887 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.926 | 0.897 |
| GAA | 2.33 | 2.97 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • TBL at home vs DET: 1-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-28 | DET 3 - 6 TBL | TBL | DET |
| 2025-10-17 | DET 2 - 1 TBL | DET | DET |
| 2025-04-11 | TBL 3 - 4 DET | DET | TBL |
| 2025-02-08 | DET 3 - 6 TBL | TBL | DET |
| 2025-01-25 | DET 2 - 0 TBL | DET | DET |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 01:01 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 04:07 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 16:37 | DET | Goal |
| 2 | 17:52 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 01:38 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 12:59 | TBL | Goal |
| 4 | 03:22 | DET | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 64.1%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 6.1
Score Breakdown
Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 4 Detroit Red Wings
Expected: 3.4 - 2.7