Detroit Red Wings at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2025-04-11 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 4 Detroit Red Wings

🚨 Upset Loss (73% underdog)

Win Probability

TBL: 72.8%

DET: 27.2%

Expected Goals

TBL: 4.00

DET: 2.71

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 51%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

DET

Alex Lyon - 14-9-1 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	26	22	4	84.6%	2.65	2	-1.35
DET	Alex Lyon	21	18	3	85.7%	2.36	2	-0.64

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • TBL at home vs DET: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-13	TBL 4 - 3 DET	TBL	TBL
2026-03-12	TBL 4 - 1 DET	TBL	TBL
2025-11-28	DET 3 - 6 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-10-17	DET 2 - 1 TBL	DET	TBL
2025-04-11	TBL 3 - 4 DET	DET	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	13	1	0.83
1	DET	17	1	0.98
2	TBL	15	1	1.11
2	DET	9	1	0.73
3	TBL	8	0	0.42
3	DET	18	0	0.76
4	TBL	0	0	0.00
4	DET	3	0	0.18

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 72.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 4 Detroit Red Wings

Expected: 4.0 - 2.7