San Jose Sharks at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2025-04-11 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 4 - 2 San Jose Sharks

Win Probability

EDM: 64.6%

SJS: 35.4%

Expected Goals

EDM: 4.19

SJS: 2.47

Total Goals

Median: 5.7

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 42%

EDM

Calvin Pickard - 4-5-2 | 0.874 SV% | 3.69 GAA

SJS

Georgi Romanov - 0-6-0 | 0.877 SV% | 3.89 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	Calvin Pickard	24	22	2	91.7%	2.12	1	0.12
SJS	Georgi Romanov	34	30	4	88.2%	4.54	2	0.54

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 82% • EDM at home vs SJS: 5-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-08	SJS 2 - 5 EDM	EDM	EDM
2026-03-17	EDM 5 - 3 SJS	EDM	EDM
2026-02-28	SJS 5 - 4 EDM	SJS	EDM
2026-01-29	EDM 4 - 3 SJS	EDM	EDM
2025-04-16	SJS 0 - 3 EDM	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	20	0	1.66
1	SJS	8	0	0.28
2	EDM	17	0	1.11
2	SJS	14	0	0.65
3	EDM	17	2	1.77
3	SJS	13	1	1.19

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 64.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Edmonton Oilers 4 - 2 San Jose Sharks

Expected: 4.2 - 2.5