Minnesota Wild at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2025-04-11 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 4 - 2 Minnesota Wild

🚨 Upset Win (53% underdog)

Win Probability

CGY: 47.2%

MIN: 52.8%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.10

MIN: 3.14

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 42%

CGY

Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA

MIN

Filip Gustavsson - 13-8-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.47 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	Dustin Wolf	18	16	2	88.9%	1.99	1	-0.01
MIN	Filip Gustavsson	32	28	4	87.5%	4.23	5	0.23

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • CGY at home vs MIN: 5-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-29	MIN 4 - 1 CGY	MIN	MIN
2025-12-04	CGY 4 - 1 MIN	CGY	CGY
2025-11-09	MIN 2 - 0 CGY	MIN	MIN
2025-04-11	CGY 4 - 2 MIN	CGY	MIN
2025-01-25	MIN 4 - 5 CGY	CGY	MIN

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	20	2	1.36
1	MIN	10	0	0.42
2	CGY	17	0	0.78
2	MIN	13	0	0.53
3	CGY	12	3	2.09
3	MIN	13	1	1.04

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 4 - 2 Minnesota Wild

Expected: 3.1 - 3.1