New York Islanders at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2025-04-12 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 4 - 3 New York Islanders

Win Probability

PHI: 63.2%

NYI: 36.8%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.28

NYI: 2.64

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 47%

PHI

Samuel Ersson - 6-5-4 | 0.868 SV% | 3.09 GAA

NYI

Marcus Hogberg - 0-0-0 | 0.714 SV% | 8.90 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	Samuel Ersson	45	42	3	93.3%	3.82	0	0.82
NYI	Marcus Hogberg	26	22	4	84.6%	4.24	3	0.24

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 45% • PHI at home vs NYI: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-03	NYI 1 - 4 PHI	PHI	NYI
2026-01-26	PHI 0 - 4 NYI	NYI	PHI
2025-11-28	NYI 3 - 4 PHI	PHI	NYI
2025-10-25	PHI 4 - 3 NYI	PHI	PHI
2025-04-12	PHI 4 - 3 NYI	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	13	0	0.65
1	NYI	13	0	0.94
2	PHI	8	1	0.55
2	NYI	18	0	1.29
3	PHI	13	1	1.57
3	NYI	14	0	1.05
4	PHI	3	0	0.20
4	NYI	3	0	0.09
5	PHI	5	1	1.28
5	NYI	5	0	0.44

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 63.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 4 - 3 New York Islanders

Expected: 3.3 - 2.6