St. Louis Blues at Seattle Kraken NHL Predictions

2025-04-12 • Climate Pledge Arena

Seattle Kraken 4 - 3 St. Louis Blues

🚨 Upset Win (62% underdog)

Win Probability

SEA: 38.3%

STL: 61.7%

Expected Goals

SEA: 2.57

STL: 3.31

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 39%

SEA

Philipp Grubauer - 7-3-1 | 0.920 SV% | 2.32 GAA

STL

Jordan Binnington - 7-10-6 | 0.869 SV% | 3.56 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SEA	Philipp Grubauer	27	22	5	81.5%	4.45	3	-0.55
STL	Jordan Binnington	25	19	6	76.0%	4.62	3	-1.38

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 78% • SEA at home vs STL: 1-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-04	SEA 2 - 3 STL	STL	STL
2026-02-26	STL 5 - 1 SEA	STL	STL
2025-11-08	STL 3 - 4 SEA	SEA	STL
2025-04-12	SEA 4 - 3 STL	SEA	STL
2025-02-25	STL 7 - 2 SEA	STL	STL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SEA	13	0	0.71
1	STL	4	0	0.25
2	SEA	8	0	0.43
2	STL	15	1	1.38
3	SEA	8	0	0.37
3	STL	15	0	0.64
4	SEA	2	0	0.15
4	STL	0	0	0.00
5	SEA	7	3	2.96
5	STL	7	2	2.19

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 61.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Seattle Kraken 4 - 3 St. Louis Blues

Expected: 2.6 - 3.3