Philadelphia Flyers at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2025-04-13 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 4 - 3 Philadelphia Flyers

Win Probability

OTT: 63.9%

PHI: 36.1%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.24

PHI: 2.97

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 46%

OTT

Anton Forsberg - 11-12-3 | 0.901 SV% | 2.72 GAA

PHI

Ivan Fedotov - 6-13-4 | 0.880 SV% | 3.15 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Anton Forsberg	32	29	3	90.6%	3.90	5	0.90
PHI	Ivan Fedotov	25	21	4	84.0%	1.99	2	-2.01

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • OTT at home vs PHI: 3-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-05	PHI 1 - 2 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-11-08	PHI 2 - 3 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-10-23	OTT 2 - 1 PHI	OTT	OTT
2025-04-13	OTT 4 - 3 PHI	OTT	OTT
2025-03-11	PHI 2 - 5 OTT	OTT	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	9	0	0.36
1	PHI	10	1	1.05
2	OTT	15	2	1.03
2	PHI	14	1	1.46
3	OTT	15	0	0.54
3	PHI	14	3	1.40
4	OTT	1	0	0.07
4	PHI	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 63.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 4 - 3 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.2 - 3.0