Boston Bruins at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2025-04-13 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 1 - 4 Boston Bruins

🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)

Win Probability

PIT: 54.9%

BOS: 45.1%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.37

BOS: 2.88

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 43%

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

BOS

Joonas Korpisalo - 6-8-0 | 0.882 SV% | 3.60 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Tristan Jarry	32	28	4	87.5%	3.61	1	-0.39
BOS	Joonas Korpisalo	24	23	1	95.8%	2.39	1	1.39

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • PIT at home vs BOS: 1-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-08	PIT 5 - 4 BOS	PIT	PIT
2026-03-03	BOS 2 - 1 PIT	BOS	BOS
2026-01-11	BOS 1 - 0 PIT	BOS	PIT
2025-04-13	PIT 1 - 4 BOS	BOS	PIT
2025-03-01	PIT 2 - 3 BOS	BOS	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	8	0	0.56
1	BOS	22	0	1.32
2	PIT	16	1	1.35
2	BOS	18	0	1.34
3	PIT	14	0	0.48
3	BOS	9	1	0.95

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 1 - 4 Boston Bruins

Expected: 3.4 - 2.9