Boston Bruins at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2025-04-13 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 1 - 4 Boston Bruins

🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)

Win Probability

PIT: 56.1%

BOS: 43.9%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.15

BOS: 3.07

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 43%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • PIT at home vs BOS: 1-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-08	PIT 5 - 4 BOS	PIT	PIT
2026-03-03	BOS 2 - 1 PIT	BOS	BOS
2026-01-11	BOS 1 - 0 PIT	BOS	BOS
2025-04-13	PIT 1 - 4 BOS	BOS	PIT
2025-03-01	PIT 2 - 3 BOS	BOS	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	8	0	0.56
1	BOS	22	0	1.32
2	PIT	16	1	1.35
2	BOS	18	0	1.34
3	PIT	14	0	0.48
3	BOS	9	1	0.95

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 1 - 4 Boston Bruins

Expected: 3.2 - 3.1