Toronto Maple Leafs at Carolina Hurricanes NHL Predictions
2025-04-13 • Lenovo Center
Carolina Hurricanes 1 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs
🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
CAR: 57.2%
TOR: 42.8%
Expected Goals
CAR: 2.78
TOR: 2.88
Total Goals
Median: 5.0
Over 5.5: 46%
Over 6.5: 32%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
CAR
Brandon Bussi - 23-3-1 | 0.906 SV% | 2.16 GAA
TOR
Joseph Woll - 13-7-4 | 0.908 SV% | 2.92 GAA
| Stat | CAR | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.901 | 0.914 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.915 | 0.910 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.800 | 0.958 |
| GAA | 2.33 | 2.74 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 38% • CAR at home vs TOR: 2-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-04 | CAR 1 - 5 TOR | TOR | CAR |
| 2025-11-09 | TOR 4 - 5 CAR | CAR | TOR |
| 2025-04-13 | CAR 1 - 4 TOR | TOR | CAR |
| 2025-02-22 | TOR 6 - 3 CAR | TOR | TOR |
| 2025-01-09 | CAR 6 - 3 TOR | CAR | CAR |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 19:43 | TOR | Goal |
| 2 | 10:20 | TOR | Goal |
| 3 | 01:25 | TOR | Goal |
| 3 | 07:58 | TOR | Goal |
| 3 | 15:43 | TOR | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 57.2%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 5.7
Score Breakdown
Carolina Hurricanes 1 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs
Expected: 2.8 - 2.9