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Toronto Maple Leafs at Carolina Hurricanes NHL Predictions

2025-04-13 • Lenovo Center
Carolina Hurricanes 1 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs
🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability
CAR: 56.6%
TOR: 43.4%
Expected Goals
CAR: 2.56
TOR: 3.11
Total Goals
Median: 4.0
Over 5.5: 32%
Over 6.5: 22%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CAR
Brandon Bussi - 31-6-2 | 0.894 SV% | 2.47 GAA
TOR
Joseph Woll - 15-16-7 | 0.898 SV% | 3.34 GAA
StatCARTOR
Season SV%0.9010.914
Last 5 SV%0.8870.863
SV% vs Opponent0.8480.917
GAA2.332.74
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • CAR at home vs TOR: 2-2
DateScoreWinnerModel Pick
2026-03-20TOR 3 - 4 CARCARCAR
2025-12-04CAR 1 - 5 TORTORCAR
2025-11-09TOR 4 - 5 CARCARCAR
2025-04-13CAR 1 - 4 TORTORCAR
2025-02-22TOR 6 - 3 CARTORCAR

⚡ In-Game Win Probability

0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 0:00 20:00 40:00 60:00 In-Game Win Probability Home Win Probability Game Time (minutes)

Goals

PeriodTimeTeamScorer
119:43TORGoal
210:20TORGoal
301:25TORGoal
307:58TORGoal
315:43TORGoal

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 56.6%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 5.7
Score Breakdown
Carolina Hurricanes 1 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs
Expected: 2.6 - 3.1