Toronto Maple Leafs at Carolina Hurricanes NHL Predictions

2025-04-13 • Lenovo Center

Carolina Hurricanes 1 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs

🚨 Upset Loss (71% underdog)

Win Probability

CAR: 70.8%

TOR: 29.2%

Expected Goals

CAR: 2.52

TOR: 2.60

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 43%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • CAR at home vs TOR: 2-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-20	TOR 3 - 4 CAR	CAR	CAR
2025-12-04	CAR 1 - 5 TOR	TOR	CAR
2025-11-09	TOR 4 - 5 CAR	CAR	CAR
2025-04-13	CAR 1 - 4 TOR	TOR	CAR
2025-02-22	TOR 6 - 3 CAR	TOR	CAR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CAR	20	2	1.12
1	TOR	8	0	0.56
2	CAR	10	0	0.31
2	TOR	13	1	0.82
3	CAR	22	2	1.72
3	TOR	14	0	0.94

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 70.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.1

Score Breakdown

Carolina Hurricanes 1 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 2.5 - 2.6