Buffalo Sabres at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions
2025-04-13 • Amalie Arena
Tampa Bay Lightning 7 - 4 Buffalo Sabres
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TBL: 65.2%
BUF: 34.8%
Expected Goals
TBL: 4.71
BUF: 3.08
Total Goals
Median: 11.0
Over 5.5: 96%
Over 6.5: 92%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 39-15-4 | 0.911 SV% | 2.31 GAA
BUF
Alex Lyon - 20-10-4 | 0.906 SV% | 2.77 GAA
| Stat | TBL | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.906 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.919 | 0.847 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.841 | — |
| GAA | 2.33 | 2.82 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • TBL at home vs BUF: 3-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-06 | BUF 4 - 2 TBL | BUF | TBL |
| 2026-03-08 | BUF 8 - 7 TBL | BUF | BUF |
| 2026-02-28 | TBL 2 - 6 BUF | BUF | TBL |
| 2026-02-03 | TBL 4 - 3 BUF | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-04-13 | TBL 7 - 4 BUF | TBL | TBL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 16:35 | TBL | Goal |
| 1 | 19:37 | TBL | Goal |
| 1 | 19:52 | BUF | Goal |
| 2 | 03:02 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 06:34 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 14:21 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 16:45 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 02:39 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 08:39 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 13:12 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 18:23 | TBL | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 65.2%
Total Goals
Actual: 11.0
Expected: 7.8
Score Breakdown
Tampa Bay Lightning 7 - 4 Buffalo Sabres
Expected: 4.7 - 3.1
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