San Jose Sharks at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2025-04-13 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 5 - 2 San Jose Sharks

Win Probability

CGY: 58.1%

SJS: 41.9%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.62

SJS: 2.88

Total Goals

Median: 5.7

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 44%

CGY

Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA

SJS

Georgi Romanov - 0-6-0 | 0.877 SV% | 3.89 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	Dustin Wolf	30	28	2	93.3%	2.08	1	0.08
SJS	Georgi Romanov	30	25	5	83.3%	3.35	1	-1.65

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • CGY at home vs SJS: 5-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-26	SJS 1 - 4 CGY	CGY	SJS
2026-01-31	CGY 3 - 2 SJS	CGY	CGY
2025-12-16	SJS 6 - 3 CGY	SJS	CGY
2025-11-13	CGY 2 - 0 SJS	CGY	CGY
2025-04-13	CGY 5 - 2 SJS	CGY	CGY

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	13	0	0.77
1	SJS	21	0	0.94
2	CGY	20	0	1.14
2	SJS	7	1	0.53
3	CGY	15	1	1.45
3	SJS	11	0	0.61

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 58.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 5 - 2 San Jose Sharks

Expected: 3.6 - 2.9