Chicago Blackhawks at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2025-04-14 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 3 - 4 Chicago Blackhawks

🚨 Upset Loss (65% underdog)

Win Probability

MTL: 65.2%

CHI: 34.8%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.17

CHI: 2.73

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 68%

Over 6.5: 51%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • MTL at home vs CHI: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-18	MTL 4 - 1 CHI	MTL	MTL
2025-10-11	CHI 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	MTL
2025-04-14	MTL 3 - 4 CHI	CHI	MTL
2025-01-03	CHI 4 - 2 MTL	CHI	MTL
2023-12-22	CHI 2 - 5 MTL	MTL	MTL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	17	0	0.96
1	CHI	14	3	1.37
2	MTL	17	3	2.45
2	CHI	15	1	1.63
3	MTL	10	0	0.61
3	CHI	13	0	0.99
4	MTL	1	0	0.01
4	CHI	3	0	0.36
5	MTL	3	0	0.26
5	CHI	2	1	0.98

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 65.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 3 - 4 Chicago Blackhawks

Expected: 3.2 - 2.7