Dallas Stars at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2025-04-14 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 6 - 4 Dallas Stars

Win Probability

DET: 55.7%

DAL: 44.3%

Expected Goals

DET: 3.38

DAL: 3.23

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 51%

DET

Cam Talbot - 11-6-3 | 0.888 SV% | 2.99 GAA

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DET	Cam Talbot	28	24	4	85.7%	4.03	5	0.03
DAL	Jake Oettinger	37	31	6	83.8%	3.68	2	-2.32

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 90% • DET at home vs DAL: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-14	DAL 3 - 2 DET	DAL	DAL
2025-12-23	DET 4 - 3 DAL	DET	DET
2025-04-14	DET 6 - 4 DAL	DET	DET
2025-01-19	DAL 4 - 1 DET	DAL	DAL
2024-01-23	DET 4 - 5 DAL	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	17	0	0.99
1	DAL	13	3	1.56
2	DET	15	1	0.94
2	DAL	19	1	1.41
3	DET	14	1	1.75
3	DAL	10	1	1.06

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 55.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Detroit Red Wings 6 - 4 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.4 - 3.2