New York Rangers at Florida Panthers NHL Predictions

2025-04-14 • Amerant Bank Arena

Florida Panthers 3 - 5 New York Rangers

🚨 Upset Loss (65% underdog)

Win Probability

FLA: 65.2%

NYR: 34.8%

Expected Goals

FLA: 3.88

NYR: 2.84

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 52%

Over 6.5: 37%

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

NYR

Jonathan Quick - 3-6-1 | 0.924 SV% | 2.11 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	25	20	5	80.0%	2.11	2	-2.89
NYR	Jonathan Quick	30	27	3	90.0%	3.10	2	0.10

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • FLA at home vs NYR: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-13	FLA 3 - 2 NYR	FLA	FLA
2026-03-29	NYR 3 - 1 FLA	NYR	NYR
2026-01-02	FLA 1 - 5 NYR	NYR	FLA
2025-04-14	FLA 3 - 5 NYR	NYR	FLA
2024-12-30	FLA 5 - 3 NYR	FLA	FLA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	FLA	14	0	0.80
1	NYR	9	1	0.59
2	FLA	18	1	1.41
2	NYR	13	0	0.76
3	FLA	16	1	0.89
3	NYR	10	1	0.76

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 65.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Florida Panthers 3 - 5 New York Rangers

Expected: 3.9 - 2.8