Toronto Maple Leafs at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2025-04-15 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 0 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs

🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)

Win Probability

BUF: 54.5%

TOR: 45.5%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.35

TOR: 2.87

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 42%

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

TOR

Anthony Stolarz - 6-5-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	32	28	4	87.5%	4.48	3	0.48
TOR	Anthony Stolarz	35	35	0	100.0%	3.56	2	3.56

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • BUF at home vs TOR: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-14	BUF 3 - 2 TOR	BUF	BUF
2026-01-27	TOR 4 - 7 BUF	BUF	BUF
2025-10-25	TOR 4 - 3 BUF	TOR	TOR
2025-10-24	BUF 5 - 3 TOR	BUF	BUF
2025-04-15	BUF 0 - 4 TOR	TOR	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	19	0	1.19
1	TOR	13	0	0.69
2	BUF	13	0	0.98
2	TOR	19	0	1.49
3	BUF	18	2	1.39
3	TOR	17	3	2.30

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 0 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.4 - 2.9