Florida Panthers at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions
2025-04-15 • Amalie Arena
Tampa Bay Lightning 5 - 1 Florida Panthers
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TBL: 55.9%
FLA: 44.1%
Expected Goals
TBL: 3.41
FLA: 3.41
Total Goals
Median: 5.9
Over 5.5: 57%
Over 6.5: 45%
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 52% • TBL at home vs FLA: 3-8
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-05 | TBL 6 - 1 FLA | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-12-27 | FLA 2 - 4 TBL | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-12-15 | TBL 2 - 5 FLA | FLA | TBL |
| 2025-11-15 | FLA 1 - 3 TBL | TBL | FLA |
| 2025-04-30 | TBL 3 - 6 FLA | FLA | TBL |
Shot Quality by Period
| Period | Team | Shots | High Danger | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TBL | 9 | 1 | 0.82 |
| 1 | FLA | 12 | 0 | 0.57 |
| 2 | TBL | 21 | 2 | 1.80 |
| 2 | FLA | 12 | 0 | 0.45 |
| 3 | TBL | 18 | 0 | 1.38 |
| 3 | FLA | 12 | 0 | 0.70 |
Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 55.9%
Total Goals
Actual: 6.0
Expected: 6.8
Score Breakdown
Tampa Bay Lightning 5 - 1 Florida Panthers
Expected: 3.4 - 3.4
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