Columbus Blue Jackets at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2025-04-15 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 0 - 3 Columbus Blue Jackets

🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)

Win Probability

PHI: 60.3%

CBJ: 39.7%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.06

CBJ: 2.83

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 67%

Over 6.5: 47%

PHI

Samuel Ersson - 6-5-4 | 0.868 SV% | 3.09 GAA

CBJ

Jet Greaves - 11-10-5 | 0.909 SV% | 2.62 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	Samuel Ersson	34	31	3	91.2%	2.75	1	-0.25
CBJ	Jet Greaves	29	29	0	100.0%	3.11	1	3.11

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 45% • PHI at home vs CBJ: 2-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-24	PHI 2 - 3 CBJ	CBJ	PHI
2026-03-14	PHI 1 - 2 CBJ	CBJ	PHI
2026-01-28	CBJ 5 - 3 PHI	CBJ	CBJ
2025-04-15	PHI 0 - 3 CBJ	CBJ	PHI
2025-01-14	CBJ 3 - 2 PHI	CBJ	CBJ

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	15	0	1.09
1	CBJ	12	0	0.80
2	PHI	20	0	0.82
2	CBJ	18	0	0.98
3	PHI	11	1	1.20
3	CBJ	15	1	0.98

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 60.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 0 - 3 Columbus Blue Jackets

Expected: 3.1 - 2.8