Washington Capitals at New York Islanders NHL Predictions
2025-04-15 • UBS Arena
New York Islanders 1 - 3 Washington Capitals
🚨 Upset Loss (50% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
NYI: 50.1%
WSH: 49.9%
Expected Goals
NYI: 3.19
WSH: 2.45
Total Goals
Median: 4.0
Over 5.5: 33%
Over 6.5: 22%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
NYI
Ilya Sorokin - 29-24-2 | 0.906 SV% | 2.68 GAA
WSH
Logan Thompson - 31-21-6 | 0.912 SV% | 2.44 GAA
| Stat | NYI | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.910 | 0.913 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.851 | 0.912 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.899 | 0.944 |
| GAA | 2.55 | 2.39 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 36% • NYI at home vs WSH: 2-4
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-02 | WSH 4 - 1 NYI | WSH | WSH |
| 2025-11-30 | NYI 1 - 4 WSH | WSH | NYI |
| 2025-10-31 | WSH 1 - 3 NYI | NYI | WSH |
| 2025-10-11 | NYI 2 - 4 WSH | WSH | WSH |
| 2025-04-15 | NYI 1 - 3 WSH | WSH | NYI |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 08:15 | WSH | Goal |
| 2 | 07:52 | WSH | Goal |
| 3 | 11:36 | WSH | Goal |
| 3 | 18:49 | WSH | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 50.1%
Total Goals
Actual: 4.0
Expected: 5.6
Score Breakdown
New York Islanders 1 - 3 Washington Capitals
Expected: 3.2 - 2.5
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