Vegas Golden Knights at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2025-04-15 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 5 - 4 Vegas Golden Knights

Win Probability

CGY: 55.7%

VGK: 44.3%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.29

VGK: 3.14

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 49%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 92% • CGY at home vs VGK: 4-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	VGK 6 - 3 CGY	VGK	VGK
2025-12-20	CGY 6 - 3 VGK	CGY	CGY
2025-10-18	VGK 6 - 1 CGY	VGK	VGK
2025-10-14	CGY 2 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-04-15	CGY 5 - 4 VGK	CGY	CGY

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	17	0	0.75
1	VGK	14	1	0.97
2	CGY	9	0	0.57
2	VGK	16	0	1.09
3	CGY	16	1	1.09
3	VGK	19	0	1.47
4	CGY	3	0	0.32
4	VGK	5	0	0.57
5	CGY	3	1	0.96
5	VGK	3	0	0.17

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 55.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 5 - 4 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.3 - 3.1