Vegas Golden Knights at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2025-04-15 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 5 - 4 Vegas Golden Knights

🚨 Upset Win (63% underdog)

Win Probability

CGY: 37.3%

VGK: 62.7%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.08

VGK: 3.30

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 47%

CGY

Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA

VGK

Ilya Samsonov - 16-9-4 | 0.891 SV% | 2.82 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	Dustin Wolf	42	38	4	90.5%	4.26	1	0.26
VGK	Ilya Samsonov	30	25	5	83.3%	3.70	2	-1.30

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 75% • CGY at home vs VGK: 4-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	VGK 6 - 3 CGY	VGK	VGK
2025-12-20	CGY 6 - 3 VGK	CGY	VGK
2025-10-18	VGK 6 - 1 CGY	VGK	VGK
2025-10-14	CGY 2 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-04-15	CGY 5 - 4 VGK	CGY	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	17	0	0.75
1	VGK	14	1	0.97
2	CGY	9	0	0.57
2	VGK	16	0	1.09
3	CGY	16	1	1.09
3	VGK	19	0	1.47
4	CGY	3	0	0.32
4	VGK	5	0	0.57
5	CGY	3	1	0.96
5	VGK	3	0	0.17

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 62.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 5 - 4 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.1 - 3.3