Philadelphia Flyers at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2025-04-17 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 5 - 4 Philadelphia Flyers

Win Probability

BUF: 54.4%

PHI: 45.6%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.23

PHI: 3.00

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 47%

BUF

James Reimer - 10-10-2 | 0.896 SV% | 3.04 GAA

PHI

Aleksei Kolosov - 5-9-1 | 0.867 SV% | 3.59 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	James Reimer	24	20	4	83.3%	2.25	0	-1.75
PHI	Aleksei Kolosov	31	26	5	83.9%	3.92	2	-1.08

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 89% • BUF at home vs PHI: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-14	BUF 5 - 2 PHI	BUF	BUF
2025-12-18	BUF 5 - 3 PHI	BUF	BUF
2025-12-03	PHI 5 - 2 BUF	PHI	PHI
2025-04-17	BUF 5 - 4 PHI	BUF	BUF
2025-03-29	PHI 7 - 4 BUF	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	19	0	1.29
1	PHI	9	0	0.64
2	BUF	15	1	1.17
2	PHI	13	0	0.87
3	BUF	12	1	1.45
3	PHI	16	0	0.74

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 5 - 4 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.2 - 3.0