Philadelphia Flyers at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions
2025-04-17 • KeyBank Center
Buffalo Sabres 5 - 4 Philadelphia Flyers
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
BUF: 50.3%
PHI: 49.7%
Expected Goals
BUF: 3.43
PHI: 3.11
Total Goals
Median: 8.1
Over 5.5: 76%
Over 6.5: 66%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
BUF
Alex Lyon - 20-10-4 | 0.906 SV% | 2.77 GAA
PHI
Dan Vladar - 29-14-7 | 0.906 SV% | 2.42 GAA
| Stat | BUF | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.906 | 0.910 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.847 | 0.914 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.889 | 0.667 |
| GAA | 2.82 | 2.40 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 78% • BUF at home vs PHI: 4-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-14 | BUF 5 - 2 PHI | BUF | BUF |
| 2025-12-18 | BUF 5 - 3 PHI | BUF | BUF |
| 2025-12-03 | PHI 5 - 2 BUF | PHI | PHI |
| 2025-04-17 | BUF 5 - 4 PHI | BUF | BUF |
| 2025-03-29 | PHI 7 - 4 BUF | PHI | PHI |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 04:35 | BUF | Goal |
| 1 | 13:49 | BUF | Goal |
| 1 | 15:09 | BUF | Goal |
| 1 | 16:11 | BUF | Goal |
| 2 | 01:24 | BUF | Goal |
| 2 | 07:11 | BUF | Goal |
| 3 | 00:15 | BUF | Goal |
| 3 | 19:12 | BUF | Goal |
| 3 | 19:41 | BUF | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 50.3%
Total Goals
Actual: 9.0
Expected: 6.5
Score Breakdown
Buffalo Sabres 5 - 4 Philadelphia Flyers
Expected: 3.4 - 3.1
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